Dem Kollaps nahe?
Christian Keuschnigg
Ohne Schulden kann eine moderne Volkswirtschaft wie die Schweiz nicht funktionieren. Wie sollen die Sparer für die Zukunft vorsorgen, wenn es keine Schuldner gäbe, die ihr Geld ertragreich investieren können? Allein es kommt auf das richtige Ausmass an. Eine solide Ausstattung mit risikotragenden Eigenmitteln macht die Schulden sicher und das Wachstum nachhaltig. Im derzeitigen Tiefzinsumfeld steigt die Gefahr einer Überschuldung. Auch die Corona-Krise dürfte viele Unternehmen in den Konkurs treiben.
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24. August 2020
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Just-in-time Supply Chains after the Covid-19 Crisis
Frank Pisch
The Covid-19 pandemic has re-opened debate about the merits and drawbacks of highly coordinated global supply chains in manufacturing. This column documents the economic relevance, geographical properties and ownership structure of French manufacturing firms in international just-in-time supply chains – as well as potential implications for global value chains in a post-Covid-19 world. Just-in-time supply chains are likely to become more prevalent, contribute to further regionalisation of international trade, and generate an increase in multinational production. |
7. Juli 2020 |
Lockdown Simulator
Charles Gottlieb
Work-in-data provides detailed insights on work, and how the nature of work evolves with economic development.
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25. Juni 2020
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Working from Home: Implications for Developing Countries
Charles Gottlieb, Jan Grobovsek, Markus Poschke, Fernando Saltiel
In the fight to contain the spread of Covid-19, 70 countries across the world have implemented social distancing policies.These policies have severe economic effects because they limit the ability to work for a large number of workers. However, some workers may be able to continue working if they can work from home. Measuring the ability of a country’s employment to work from home is, therefore, crucial to understanding the effects of social distancing policies on incomes and welfare. Conversely, an assessment of how much work can be done from home is a key input for the design of social distancing rules and social protection responses. |
25 June 2020 |
Lockdown Accounting
Charles Gotllieb, Jan Grobovsek, Markus Poschke, Fernando Saltiel
We measure the effect of lockdown policies on employment and GDP across countries using individual- and sector-level data. Employment effects depend on the ability to work from home, which ranges from about half of total employment in rich countries to around 35% in poor countries. This gap reflects differences in occupational composition, self-employment levels, and individual characteristics across countries. GDP effects of lockdown policies also depend on countries’ sectoral structure. Losses in poor countries are attenuated by their higher value-added share in essential sectors, notably agriculture. Overall, a realistic lockdown policy implies GDP losses of 20-25% on an annualized basis. |
25 June 2020 |
Contact-Tracing-App: Es geht nur, wenn alle mitmachen
Christian Biener, Thomas Epper
Eine Contact-Tracing-App könnte mithelfen, die Verbreitung des Coronavirus zu stoppen. Die politisch und ethisch erforderliche Freiwilligkeit der Nutzung führt jedoch zu einem Dilemma. Ist es an der Zeit, über finanzielle Anreize zu reden? |
14. Mai 2020 |
Angst Essen Wirtschaft auf
Monika Bütler
Für einmal waren einige Epidemiologen schneller als fast alle Wirtschaftsbeobachter. Während erstere Anfangs Februar ihre Aktien verkauften, prognostizierten letztere noch einen überschaubaren Rückgang des Weltwirtschaftswachstums. Von Rezession oder gar Depression war nicht die Rede. Nur wenige Wochen später und mit vollständigen oder partiellen Lockdowns in vielen Ländern wissen wir: Die Kosten der COVID19 Krise werden gigantisch sein (z.B. Studie Atkeson, Studie BIS). Gleichzeitig keimt bei Vielen die Hoffnung auf, dass eine Lockerung der staatlichen Einschränkungen einen grossen Teil Einbruchs wieder wettmachen könnte. |
25. April 2020 |
Preparing for Second Wave of Covid-19: A Trade Bargain To Secure Supplies Of Medical Goods
Simon Evenett, L. Alan Winters
Much of what has been written about the $597 billion trade worldwide in medical products and medicines linked to the COVID-19 pandemic has emphasised either the prevalence or consequences of export curbs or made the case for liberalising imports, principally through eliminating tariffs. Few have linked these two policy instruments and, those proposals which have, did not draw out the logic of the basis for a deal between governments. Failure to do so obscures one of the main benefits of much needed collective action.
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24. April 2020 |
Shall Italy relax the lockdown now?
Guido Cozzi
To open or not to open? This is the question currently tormenting Italian policy-makers, and consequently millions of people deprived of their basic liberty and rights.
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21. April 2020 |
Working From Home across Countries
Charles Gottlieb, Jan Grobovsek, Markus Poschke
We study how the share of employment that can work from home changes with country income levels. We document that in urban areas, this share is only about 20% in poor countries, compared to close to 40% in rich ones. This result is driven by the self-employed workers: in poor countries their share of employment is large and their occupational composition not conducive to work from home. At the level of the entire country, the share of employment that can work from home in poor countries compared to rich countries depends on farmers’ ability to work from home. This finding is due to the high agricultural employment share in poor countries.
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21. April 2020
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Modi-Covid19: Bio-Economic and -Politics Simulation
Ernst Mohr
Within just three months after the arrival of the virus, as of the middle of March 2020, the fight against the Covid19 pandemic has left the international political and economic cooperation in a wreckage. Even Europe’s densely knit supranational institutions have been paralyzed by the tsunami of national go-it-alone approaches. Yet there are two commonalities across almost all of Europe: A lockdown on citizens’ freedom and open protectionism at the national borders. This is the assumed starting point for a qualitative simulation by Prof. Ernst Mohr of the challenges posed by a hypothetical mutant of Covid19, which in the following is called Modi-Covid19. |
20. April 2020 |
Welcher Typ Mensch hamstert Klopapier?
Lisa Garbe
Wer sind die Menschen, die in der Corona-Krise Klopapier hamstern? Mit dieser Frage hat sich DIA Studentin Lisa Garbe beschäftigt. In einer Studie haben sie und zwei Psychologen das Phänomen des "Klopapier-Hamsterns" untersucht. Warum das kein deutsches Phänomen ist, erklärt sie im Gespräch mit SWR Aktuell-Moderatorin Astrid Meisoll.
Studie: "Influence of perceived threat of Covid-19 and HEXACO personality traits on toilet paper stockpiling" |
17. April 2020 |
COVID-19 in Brazil
Vanessa Boanada Fuchs
On February 24 – the same day as in Switzerland – the first case of COVID-19 was reported in Brazil. It was a 61-year-old man who lived in São Paulo, the largest South American metropolis. Since then, the spread of the virus has slowly increased in the country and reached other South American neighbors. In Brazil up to the present day (14 April 2020) there were 25'262 reported cases and 1532 confirmed deaths caused by the new coronavirus. Despite the comparatively low number of cases, it is expected that the dark figure be much higher given the sub-notification levels and lack of basic supplies needed for reliable testing. The projection of the COVID-19 curve in Brazil shows that the peak of cases will only be reported between the end of April and beginning of May. |
15. April 2020
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Scaling Up Production of Medical Equipment Worldwide: The O-Ring Problem and a Collaborative Solution
Simon Evenett
Faced with surging rates of infection among their populations, governments are desperate to acquire medical supplies and equipment for their nation’s hospitals and medical professionals. Currently, governments are acting unilaterally, often taking steps that are ineffective, that offer very short-term gains or that harm citizens in other countries.
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10. April 2020 |
Wohlstand in der Zeit nach COVID-19
Stefan Legge
Der Ausbruch des neuen Coronavirus hat nicht nur unmittelbar die Gesundheit Tausender Menschen in der Schweiz und weltweit getroffen, sondern auch enorme wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen. Die aktuellen Zahlen zur gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung sind mitunter verheerend. Binnen Wochen hat sich die Arbeitslosigkeit massiv erhöht. Hierzulande sind inzwischen über 18'000 zusätzliche Menschen bei den Regionalen Arbeitsvermittlungszentren (RAV) arbeitslos gemeldet. Täglich kommen viele hinzu. |
9. April 2020 |
Can COVID bonds save the Italian economy (and Europe)?
Guido Cozzi
As explained by Mario Draghi, the danger of having to stop production for 1-2 months for millions of workers is that companies will accumulate debts and go bankrupt. As a result, the economy would incur permanent damage, because a forced "vacation" would turn into a serious credit crunch, comparable to that of 2008-2009. The Italian government needs to intervene. But how? Cumulating piles of ordinary new debt could be very risky, given its already excessive level. I think a slightly more sophisticated solution would be desirable, as it would soften the future impact on the Italian taxpayers, without creating new tensions with Europe. |
9. April 2020 |