10 November 2022. The 2022 vote saw races for the entire House of Representatives, currently 435 members, 35 seats in the 100-member Senate and 36 state governorships. While the midterms can be a strong predictor for the incumbent president’s success in the second term, midterms typically draw a lower turnout than elections that include a presidential race. Professor James Davis gives three thoughts on the results:

“Even though they likely will lose their majority in the House of Representatives, this was a good night for Democrats and their embattled President, Joe Biden. They have clearly outperformed expectations. Historically, the President’s party loses between 40 and 60 seats in the mid-term elections. At this point it looks like Republican gains will be far less and any majority very slim.

Former President Donald Trump comes out of this election weaker. He invested heavily in high-profile races—for example in Arizona and Pennsylvania--where his chosen candidates lost. Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis, a likely candidate for the Republican presidential nomination won reelection as Governor of Florida by a large margin. This could be the beginning of the end of Trump’s domination of the Republican party.

The open question: What does this mean for Joe Biden? His party has outperformed expectations and so he is likely to claim victory. But if Trump emerges from the elections weakened and younger Republican leaders are in the ascendancy, the voices within the Democratic party supporting a new generation of leadership are likely to increase.”

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